Governments and public agencies operate in conditions where oil prices, commodity receipts, interest rates, climate shocks and political cycles can overturn a budget within months. Where fiscal risk is not tracked, deficits widen, arrears accumulate and essential programmes are cut in a hurry. At the same time, legislatures and citizens expect public money to be tied to results rather than inputs.

This advanced programme combines two disciplines that are often taught apart. The first is risk management applied to the budget: identifying sources of fiscal risk, building a register, measuring exposure with scenarios and sensitivity analysis, assessing contingent liabilities and designing mitigation such as contingency reserves, hedging and expenditure rules. The second is outcome-based budgeting, which restructures allocations around programmes, outputs and outcomes and introduces performance information into budget decisions.

Delegates work through budget extracts and simplified fiscal models in guided workshops. They test how shocks change the deficit, draft a fiscal risk statement and design a performance framework with indicators and targets. The programme closes with an implementation plan for introducing risk disclosure and results-linked budgeting in the participant's own institution.

By the end of the course, participants will be able to:

• Classify the main sources of fiscal risk facing a national or sub-national budget.
• Build a fiscal risk register and prepare a fiscal risk statement.
• Quantify exposure using scenario analysis, sensitivity testing and stress tests.
• Assess contingent liabilities, guarantees and public-private partnership obligations.
• Design mitigation measures including reserves, expenditure rules and risk-sharing.
• Structure programmes with clear outputs, outcomes, indicators and targets.
• Link budget allocations and in-year reviews to performance information.
• Plan the phased introduction of outcome-based budgeting in an institution.

The programme is designed for professionals who prepare, approve or scrutinise public budgets, including:

• Budget directors and budget analysts in treasuries and finance ministries
• Economic planning and policy officers
• County and municipal finance and planning managers
• Accounting officers and heads of finance in state corporations
• Internal and external auditors of public funds
• Parliamentary and county assembly budget committee staff
• Debt management and public-private partnership unit officers
• Development partner and public finance advisers

Participants leave with:

• A fiscal risk register structured for their own budget.
• A repeatable stress-testing method using simple spreadsheet models.
• A draft outline of a fiscal risk statement for budget documents.
• A contingent liability inventory template covering guarantees and PPPs.
• A programme results framework with outcome indicators and baselines.
• An implementation roadmap for results-linked budgeting.

Sessions are set up as working clinics for public finance practitioners:

• Concise expert input on methods and international practice
• Spreadsheet labs using simplified fiscal models and sample budget data
• Case studies of fiscal shocks and how governments responded
• Group design of programme structures and indicator sets
• Peer review of each participant's draft risk register

On completing the sessions and exercises, participants are issued with a CPD-accredited Certificate of Completion by Vision Reach Global Consultancy, awarded for attendance and completed workshop outputs.